2030: How today’s biggest trends will collide and reshape the future of everything.
I love speculating about the future, so naturally, I really enjoyed 2030. The great thing about this book is that it’s not just guessing, but the authors base the information on current trends in society. I can’t wait to see how things actually shake out over the next 10 years!
By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it:
– There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
– The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
– The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
– There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
– There will be more robots than workers
– There will be more computers than human brains
– There will be more currencies than countries
Who would I recommend the 2030 summary to?
The 27-year-old that works in the tech industry and wants to stay ahead, the 65-year-old who feels behind because of the accelerating changes they’ve seen in the world throughout their lifetime, and anyone curious to know what the future holds.
Core Message
This book gives insights into where nations go by the end of the decade and why upcoming changes are important. It explores threats and opportunities from demographic changes to cryptocurrency and provides readers with solutions to tackle future challenges with wisdom. The book tries to propose a guide to navigating in the near future and surf the turbulences that await all nations around the world. It recognizes and dedicates a chapter to eight big future developments. This book is designed to enhance its readers’ creativity. The style of writing is highly open, and topical subjects may stimulate discussions between futurists and people who like to envision alternative futures.
Content Analysis
Mauro F. Guillen is a leading thinker at the Wharton School. He teaches advanced management to MBA students. As an expert on global trends, he quantifies the most promising opportunities at the intersection of demographic, economic, and technological developments. His research, teaching, and speaking incorporates numerical assessments of trends and illuminating examples from business, politics, and everyday life. His previous books include The Architecture of Collapse, Global Turning Points, and Emerging Markets Rule.
In 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, Guillen (2020) detects some of the world’s most important phenomena by the end of this decade. Thinking about the future, he detects eight impressive features that will likely highlight the world in 2030: (a) demographic drought, along with the Africa-baby boom and next industrial revolution, (b) tech-savvied seniors postponing retirement, and their interaction with Millennials, (c) the old and new middle classes and their struggle for attention; (d) women’s growing role in entrepreneurship and leadership; (e) global warming and dangers threatening human’s survival; (f), the future technologies; (g) networking and the sharing economy; (h) Blockchain and the disappearance of current banking activities.
The starting point of the discussion pinpoints changes in the world population. According to Guillen, in this industrial era, there will be more machines than human brains and more robotic tools. He believes that an epochal transition will be brought on by Artificial Intelligence (AI). His book examines tectonic trends which will play key roles in shaping the world of 2030. As the author emphasizes, for example, the most dominant middle class in terms of population and buying ability will be in India and China by 2030.
The first chapter deals with the dramatic drought in the developing world. Guillen illustrates the decline of the world’s population by growing half the speed of the last four decades. The global equilibrium of economic and strategic force changes will be influenced by births in the industrialized countries not only in North America and Europe but also in East Asia, along with a much slower decrease in Africa and elsewhere in Asia. Guillen shows how mass displacement is expected to offset these dramatic developments with a demographic relocation which will likely lead to societal transitions and other implications.
Referring to public statistical records, Guillen concludes that millennials may live longer than previous generations. The second chapter contains good news indicating that “smoking rates are starkly down, and exercise is up. More than young people in the past, millennials have friends they count on in tough times.” However, there is some bad news, especially in terms of financial stability. Many millennials will have a good time in retirement, but the same percentage, if not greater, will be in desperate financial straits for most of their adult lives.
The third chapter reflects on the development of the middle classes in Asia and Africa. Around two-thirds of the world’s middle class lived in the EU, the USA, and Japan as late as 2000. By 2030, these three entities will represent just 25 percent of this community. By that time, China, India, and the remainder of Asia will represent half of the world’s middle class. Cumulatively, the number of middle-class customers in developing countries will double as of 2020.
Chapter four examines the appearance of female practitioners, pioneers, and leaders by the end of this decade. Guillen states that the social status of women is changing globally. He assumes more than half of the world’s wealth will be owned by women in 2030. In his view, women will start almost half of the new enterprises worldwide, including emerging-market companies. However, it is not known whether they will also take leadership positions at the same rate.
The fifth chapter discusses the issues of global warming and the most possible consequences for urban environments. Today, cities shape 1 percent of the world’s territory and present 55 percent of the world’s population. By 2030, around 90 percent of urban areas will lie close to the coast, and because of climate change, those regions are the most vulnerable to rising sea levels. The cities exposed to climate change will suffer from a scarcity of fresh water and a glut of saltwater in the shape of floods as predicted by environmentalists.
The sixth chapter explores how technology continues to affect our lives. New inventions such as augmented reality, 3-D printing, AI, and nanotechnology are increasingly promising in addressing unstable global challenges like hunger, cancer, depletion of the environment, climate change, and social alienation. However, there is a growing risk of unemployment as robots take human roles in many jobs. With the advent of AI, automation, and big data technology, the stagnation of the middle-class looks likely more than ever and emerging ethical dilemmas cast shadows over societies in dealing with intelligent technologies.
The seventh chapter highlights the growth in the sharing economy, the impact of networks, and the strength of social links. Societies will keep on growing the number of items they share—homes, houses, work, meals, and fashion. Millennials around the world are filling the gap between work and life with collaborative consumerism that is becoming a major driver of change. Global polls show that more than two-thirds of people can share money-saving opportunities. However, it is known that the majority of service providers are wealthy entities who use their earnings to add up and this may lead to more class inequality.
Finally, chapter eight examines the near-future possibilities of currencies distributed by businesses and even machines, not by states. By 2030, there will be currency monopolies, but automated substitutes will also accompany them. Blockchain shapes a digital archive of unchanging monetary records which facilitates a decentralized transparency system. It will be used mainly for facilitating financial transactions. Guillen claims that Blockchain technology reveals promises in tackling arms control, alleviation of hunger, and even ecological issues by encouraging homeowners to sell surplus solar energy without paperwork.
Guillen ends the book by writing about all changes that are exacerbated by the new pandemic, COVID-19. He thinks that the future will not remain the same and our planet is in the middle of massive changes. Rather than complaining that the future is different from when they grew up, he recommends readers to look at the aspects that could improve for the better. He invites them to see what they can do to strengthen and build a fairer community in the face of huge changes.
In tracking trends and extrapolating them over the next 10 years, the author does a good job. He hedges his bets by reminding readers that nobody can forecast the future exactly. His book is not political, as it does not comment on the world diplomacy’s future or the much-discussed increase in authoritarianism, the emerging cold war between China and America, the Middle East instability, etc. In several ways, his book remains silent and may not shape decisions as strongly as policymakers expect. The issues posed in 2030 are far more observable and relevant to the average reader, such as robotics and the Blockchain.
Conclusion
This book contains hypotheses and forecasts of global status in 2030. Studying the book, the readers realize that the author has spent a great deal of his time writing about the things that look greatly different by the end of this decade. This book traces social, technological, economic, and environmental developments that shape the world up to 2030. It is a book that opens its readers’ eyes and stimulates them to think more deeply about future challenges. Guillen’s anticipatory study is mainly based on secondary resources but it is quite informative. The ideas of the book would offer readers the chance to look for alternative possibilities. His informed research is useful for investors, business owners, and readers interested in knowing more about the current trends and their implications for the coming years.
Reference
Guillen, M. F. (2020). 2030: How today’s biggest trends will collide and reshape the future of everything. St. Martin’s Press.